Every undeveloped discovery on the NCS screened against every reachable host.
Break-evens, cash flows and capacity-constrained portfolios computed by a development-planning
engine — not compiled from operator plans — and restated at your own working interests.
Reflect. Navigate. Decide.Speil is a mirror, peil is the
bearing you take off it. The shelf shown back to you on one consistent basis — and a direction
you can act on. A new edition every month.
Built on Sodir open data under NLOD · every figure traceable to a
stored revision id · deals sourced only from primary announcements
Why this is different
Most shelf research tells you what the operator plans. This tells you what the asset is worth.
The conventional method is to read each operator's impact assessment, take the
stated capital cost, and report the break-even that falls out. It is fast and verifiable — and
it inherits every assumption the operator made, including the concept they had already chosen.
You end up with a well-sourced description of other people's decisions.
Compiled research
Reads the plan
◦Break-even quoted from the operator's own filing, on the operator's chosen concept.
◦No way to test whether a different host would be worth more.
◦Assets valued on inconsistent bases, so cross-shelf comparison is approximate.
◦Static PDF; numbers cannot be re-derived or challenged input by input.
◦Implied transaction multiples stand in for valuation, on a shelf with almost no comparables.
NCSpeil
Solves the problem
✓Concepts generated, not assumed. Every host within tie-back reach plus a standalone case, scored against each other.
✓Layout actually solved. Wells and templates placed, flowline network optimised, then run through the Norwegian fiscal regime.
✓One consistent basis across the whole shelf — which is what a supply curve and a portfolio optimisation require.
✓Reproducible. Every edition carries a revision id; regenerate it and you get the same numbers.
✓Provenance on every input. Researched anchor, engine default, or proxy — labelled, never blended.
One asset, solved four ways. The field in place; the drainage bodies each
well is assigned to; the flowline network with its routing structures; and the whole
development against the infrastructure it ties into. Every line is an output of the
optimisation, not a sketch — which is the difference the column above is describing.
Solved by the Peil solver (AFP engine). Example layout, not a
specific licence.
See it solved
Five wells, or two wells and seven laterals?
The argument above is easier to make with the engine than with prose. Below is one
field handed to AFP twice. First as a planner would sketch it: five wells, one on each of the five
biggest accumulations. Then with the optimiser given back the three things a sketch gives away —
where the wellheads sit, how many laterals a well may carry, and which well drills which body.
Nothing else changes. Same reservoir, same costs, same price deck, same Norwegian tax.
What you are looking at. A slice through the sea and the
rock under it, three levels deep: the sea surface, where the production vessel floats;
the seabedbelow it, where the wellheads stand and the
pipelines run; and the reservoir — the coloured map — another long
way down inside the rock. The coloured lines are the wells: drilled down from the
seabed, then turned sideways to run along the oil.
Drag to rotate · click, then scroll to zoom · arrow keys to nudge
The sketch
About this field. It does not exist. Its
reservoir was invented for this page — a synthetic STOIIP grid over seven made-up accumulations —
precisely so that no real operator's acreage is published here. Everything else is real: both
layouts were solved by the same engine that produces the book, under the Norwegian petroleum tax
regime at 60 USD/bbl and a 10% discount rate, and the numbers above are its output, not an
illustration drawn to make a point.
What's inside
Nine chapters, and every chart is live.
Not a slide deck exported to PDF. A single self-contained page you can rotate,
click, filter and export — and print cleanly when you need it on paper for a board meeting.
Every screened discovery, on the surface that prices it. The shading is
minimum economic field size: at each cell, the smallest find that would clear the hurdle tied
back to its best reachable host. Pale ground is cheap; blank sea is beyond every host's reach.
Click a discovery and its case opens beside the map — layers, framing and panel are the book's
own, photographed live.
Sodir open data, computed by the Peil solver (AFP engine).
The break-even supply curve
The whole undeveloped shelf sorted cheapest-first against cumulative volume, with the
company-hurdle band drawn on. Colour separates researched cost anchors from engine defaults,
so you can see which part of the curve is evidence.
Flagship
Rotatable candidate cloud
Break-even, capital and volume on three axes at once, bubble size carrying net present
value, with a hurdle plane you can look through. Click any marker to load its full cash
flow.
3D
3D field concept models
The development drawn to its solved dimensions — step-out, water depth, well count,
flowline routing through real intermediate structures to the real host. Rotate it, and see
why the capital lands where it does.
3D
Clickable host atlas
Click any hub: remaining spare oil and gas capacity, the tariff basis, its actual
throughput history, every discovery competing for it, which ones the portfolio selects — and
who has traded into it.
Interactive
Minimum economic field size
The smallest discovery worth tying back at a given step-out, per host — with your own
assets plotted on top. Above the curve it pays for its own flowline; below it, it needs a
neighbour. That single read decides whether an asset is stranded or a cluster member.
Your acreage
Cash flows, not just multiples
Year-by-year revenue against capital, operating cost, tariff, carbon and tax, with the
cumulative discounted curve, payback year, capital breakdown and every alternative concept
the engine rejected.
Transactions, cross-checked
Deals curated only from primary announcements, each linked — and cross-checked against
the working-interest changes visible in the public licence register. Undisclosed stays
undisclosed; nothing is estimated.
The licence calendar
Which interests face a forced decision, and when. Expiries, host cessation dates closing
tie-back windows, and first-oil dates that need a commitment now — the cheapest negotiating
leverage a buyer is ever handed.
Capacity-constrained portfolio
Discoveries assigned to hosts to maximise total value subject to each host's free
capacity — solved as a mixed-integer programme, not picked off a sorted list. The gap
between the two is the cost of contention.
Your acreage
The same engine, restated at your working interests.
A shelf view is interesting. A shelf view with your equity applied is a work
programme. Every subscriber seat is bound to a company, and the book arrives already filtered,
netted and ranked for that company's position.
Your assets, netted. Every screened discovery you hold, at your working
interest, with net volume, net value, which you operate and which clear your hurdle.
Minimum economic field size against your hosts. Curves anchored on the hubs
your acreage actually depends on, with your discoveries plotted on top — so the
stranded-or-cluster question is answered per asset, not in the abstract.
Where you are exposed. Which of your positions sit in licences expiring inside
the decision window, and which depend on a host whose capacity is already
oversubscribed.
Who to talk to. The neighbours whose route could carry your marginal
discovery, and the counterparties whose position is complementary to yours.
Your own cost basis, optionally. Load your internal capital estimates and the
whole book re-solves against them — the outside-in view becomes an inside-out one, on the
same consistent machinery.
Minimum economic field size against three hosts, with a subscriber's own
discoveries plotted on top. Red markers cannot carry a dedicated tie-back at that
distance.
Inside-out
Take one field all the way to a decision package.
The monthly book screens the whole shelf at screening depth. When a field
moves from "interesting" to "we have a gate in six months", the same engine goes deeper on
that one asset — and the output is not a chapter, it is the package the decision actually
needs.
Optimised well count and configuration
How many wells, where they land, and whether laterals or multilaterals pay for
themselves — solved against the drainage the reservoir model supports, not assumed from a
well-per-volume rule of thumb. The answer to "is the eighth well worth drilling" is a
number, not a judgement.
Subsea layout and flowline network
Template positions, manifold grouping, tie-in routing and the flowline network
optimised as one problem rather than laid out by hand. Layout drives a large share of a
subsea development's capital, and it is the part most often fixed before it has been
tested.
Capacity and hydraulic feasibility
Does the host have the ullage in the year you need it, will the fluids arrive at
arrival pressure over that step-out, and where does the network stop converging. A concept
that fails a capacity or hydraulic check is not a cheaper concept — it is not a concept.
Concept tournament and verdict
Variants generated, solved and ranked against each other — hosts, well counts,
phasing, standalone versus tie-back — with a Pareto frontier of capital against value and
a stated recommendation, plus the conditions that would reverse it.
The package itself
One self-contained document: the recommendation and what would reverse it, the
economics with the full cash flow, the layout and drilling programme, the capacity basis,
the uncertainty band, and an input register citing every number with its source and
confidence. Written to be handed to a decision forum.
Rerun it when something changes
A cost estimate moves, a partner blocks a host, a price deck is revised — rerun the
package and every number moves consistently. The value of a computed basis is not the
first answer; it is the second one, three weeks later, arriving in minutes.
The step-out is the variable. Wells landing across the drainage surface,
the flowline and umbilical routed back to the host, risers at the far end — drawn to the
dimensions the solve produced. Distance to a host with room is usually worth more than
another appraisal well, and this is the geometry that prices it.
Solved by the Peil solver (AFP engine). Example layout; vertical scale
exaggerated.
Runs against your own reservoir volumes, cost
estimates and commercial terms under a confidentiality agreement. Nothing you supply appears
in any published edition.
Access
Priced per company. Readable from every seat.
A seat re-states the whole book at one company's working interests — a lens, not
a lock. Nothing is withheld between seats, so you can sit in a counterparty's chair and see how
the same barrels look from their side of a deal. Pricing is per company per year, agreed
directly: tell us what you hold and we will quote against it.
Shelf
For advisers, investors and anyone who needs the shelf view without
holding acreage.
A new edition every month, each stamped with its own
revision id so last month's numbers stay reproducible. Every edition ships as one
self-contained file. No login required to read it, nothing phones home, and it prints cleanly
for a board pack.
Request access to the pilot edition.
The pilot covers the full Norwegian shelf and is available now for review. Tell us which
company you are with and we will send the shelf edition, plus a seat edition built on your
acreage so you can see the difference on your own assets.
The sample is a short cut of this month's edition — every chapter, every
chart, and the first rows of each table, computed off the same screening revision the full
book ships. It stops where the inventory begins. We ask for a company name because the seat
edition cannot be built without one. We do not collect payment details on this page —
pricing is agreed directly.
Questions we get asked
The honest answers.
Where do the numbers come from, and can I check them?
Volumes, ownership, licence status, facilities, production history and wellbore data
come from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate's public FactPages, under the Norwegian
Licence for Open Government Data. Everything economic — layouts, capital, cash flows,
break-evens, portfolios — is computed from those inputs by the Peil solver (AFP engine).
Every edition names the screening revision it came from, and each case lists its own
inputs with the origin and confidence of each, so you can challenge one assumption rather
than the whole answer.
How accurate can an outside-in capital estimate really be?
It depends entirely on whether a public cost basis exists for that asset, and we say
which every time. Where one does, the engine uses it. Where it does not, the estimate is
parametric and deliberately conservative for a new-build, so those cases break even high
by construction — a screening floor, not a forecast. We report the two groups separately
and never blend them; the book carries a bridge showing exactly what separates them.
Closing that gap on the assets you care about is what a seat buys.
Do you publish implied transaction multiples?
Only where the price and the volumes were disclosed on the same basis, which on this
shelf is rare — most announcements give one or the other, or price only part of a package.
Where a deal cannot support a defensible multiple the cell stays empty, and that scarcity
is itself the argument for valuing bottom-up: we compute what each asset is worth from its
own development economics and use multiples only as a sanity check.
Is my acreage data safe if I share my cost estimates?
Inside-out engagements run against your figures under a confidentiality agreement, and
your inputs never appear in any other subscriber's edition. The shelf and seat editions are
built entirely from public data plus our own research, so nothing you share becomes part of
the published product.
What is not in here?
No forward prospect inventory — undrilled prospect volumes and chances of success are
not in the public register and need their own curation track. No knowledge of a host's real
commercial terms, which are private. No view on whether a licence group will agree a
concept. And no investment advice: this is screening-grade analysis for a business
development desk, not a reserves certification.
